Micah Barkley
Bill Gates waded into the debate over artificial intelligence, urging tech companies and regulators to get serious now about the risks the powerful technology poses to humanity.
In an essay posted to his personal website, the Microsoft co-founder wrote that AIβs βmind-blowingβ rate of advance is ushering in βone of the most turbulent times in human history.β
While Gates touted the benefits of AI, including potential scientific advances, he warned that society has a narrow window to build rules and institutions before the technologyβs disruption becomes much harder to manage.
βUnfortunately, right now we are not preparing for it,β he wrote.
βThere is no plan to ease the entry into the AI era.β
Moving faster than governments can respond
Gates said AI is developing and spreading at a pace that makes previous technological revolutions a poor guide for whatβs coming. Personal computers took roughly 20 years to significantly transform work, he noted, because companies needed new hardware and software, computers took a while to become affordable, and workers had to learn to use the technology. AI faces far fewer barriers, Gates argued, because it works on devices people already own, communicates in natural language and can learn from the same training materials and data used by humans.
βWe donβt have to adapt to it because it can adapt to us, β he wrote.
Gates said he typically wants innovation to happen quickly, but wishes the world could reap AIβs benefits while delaying it long enough to mitigate the risks. While Gates said that he would likely support a credible effort to slow AI advances globally, he sees little prospect of that succeeding because geopolitical competition and economic incentives are pushing countries and companies to race ahead as quickly as possible.
As a result, Gates said AI is outpacing regulatorsβ ability to govern it. He argued that governments cannot wait until AI-related crises become obvious before responding, and that countries should begin building institutions, coordinating across agencies, and establishing international norms now before widespread disruption makes it harder to write new policies.
AI could permanently shrink the workforce
Gates differentiated AIβs threat to labour markets from economic downturns and previous waves of automation. Jobs eliminated by AI may never return because the technology can perform the cognitive work itself, Gates warned. He said entry and mid-level positions are especially vulnerable and that sales, customer support, software engineering and paralegal work could be hit first. Eventually, AI could take on tasks ranging from loan assessments and data analysis to patient triage, he wrote.
Gates said he expected the threat to extend beyond white-collar workers by decadeβs-end once dexterous robots begin competing with humans for construction and hospitality work. He also said competitive pressure will accelerate the transition because once one company replaces workers and uses the savings to cut costs, rivals will inevitably follow.
βWe donβt have to adapt to it because it can adapt to us.β
Bill Gates
Once systems become reliable enough to work autonomously without humans checking their output, companies will have a strong financial incentive to remove people from the process altogether. Gates contended that policymakers need to address the coming upheaval before it becomes widespread, warning that βwaiting until people are already displaced or underemployed will be too late.β
AI will give bad actors more powerful tools
Gates said AI will help hackers while providing tools for anyone to launch attacks. Instructions for creating malware, weapons and other dangerous tools have long existed online, but AI can provide a shortcut for people lacking the technical sophistication. Gates argued that criminals with relatively limited skills could increasingly gain the ability to target individuals, companies and governments, while AI-enabled fraud, deepfakes, disinformation and surveillance will become more common in everyday life.
The same AI that can help companies ferret out software vulnerability can help an attacker exploit the same weakness. Gates said cybersecurity experts he knows are worried that attackers are gaining powerful capabilities faster than defenders can repair weaknesses. The potential targets extend beyond individual companies to critical infrastructure like hospitals, financial institutions, water systems, power grids, and government-benefit systems.
Gates said that while AI could simultaneously accelerate lifesaving drug development it could also make it easier to design dangerous pathogens. He also fretted that AI will strengthen institutions that already hold significant power by making autonomous weapons, mass surveillance and manipulation of public opinion cheaper and more effective.
Gates also raised the longer-term possibility that powerful AI systems themselves could behave contrary to their designersβ intentions, creating the risk that humans eventually lose control.
AI will reshape childhood and human relationships
Gates said AI companions could weaken human relationships by removing the give-and-take that helps people develop social skills. Because AI can be constantly available, agreeable and tailored to a userβs preferences, he said it could become addictive and discourage people from navigating uncomfortable, yet important human interactions.
Gates expressed particular concern about children, comparing an AI companion that never challenges them to a βprotected greenhouseβ that could hinder resilience and social development. Gates wrote that governments shouldnβt wait years for definitive evidence of such harm and points to countries already restricting bots designed to encourage emotional dependence among minors. Though AI can be a powerful educational tool, he wrote, relying on it to do difficult intellectual work could weaken independent reasoning, particularly among young people.
Jobs need to be protected
Gates said policies should be devised to slow AIβs disruption of the workforce. His βHuman Reservedβ concept would protect certain jobs or responsibilities from automation even if AI could do them. Gates also renewed his call to tax AI tokens and robots, arguing that the current tax system will encourage companies to replace their workers with cost-saving machines. Such a tax could modestly slow automation while raising money for retraining and a stronger social safety net, he wrote.
Bloomberg
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