The box office is bleak. Here’s how local theaters are surviving the downturn

As the year started, movie theater owner Damon Rubio was feeling optimistic.

His six-location theater chain’s revenue projections for January and February were tracking ahead of 2024’s weak theatrical grosses. Rubio himself was looking forward to films like Oscar-winning director Bong Joon Ho’s “Mickey 17” and Paramount Pictures’ comedic Jack Quaid thriller “Novocaine.”

But by the end of February, “things kind of dropped out on us,” said Rubio, owner and president of D’Place Entertainment, which operates theaters in California cities including in Barstow, Cathedral City and Bonsall. His chain’s revenue is still ahead of last year but only “marginally.”

“I wouldn’t call it apocalyptic, but I would call it abysmal, so I guess it’s a step up,” he said with a laugh.

Rubio is luckier than many.

Ahead of this week’s CinemaCon convention, where Hollywood studios present footage of their upcoming films to hype theater owners up for the year ahead, the industry is grappling with a brutal start to the year at the box office.

So far, box office revenue is down 11% compared with the same period last year, which was already down significantly from pre-pandemic levels, according to Comscore. March was especially weak, down 50% from the same month in 2024, according to Eric Handler, media and entertainment analyst at Roth Capital Partners.

Walt Disney Co.’s troubled live action “Snow White” was the main offering at theaters in March, compared with last year, which boasted blockbusters like Warner Bros. Pictures’ “Dune: Part Two” and “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” and Universal Pictures’ “Kung Fu Panda 4.”

The overall decline in attendance is a long-term trend that accelerated during the pandemic and hasn’t recovered since. Theaters are also still grappling with the loss of casual moviegoers, an audience that got used to watching films from their couch and shortened theatrical windows.

“The quarter will almost certainly limp to the finish,” Handler wrote in a note to clients.

Handler attributed the slower business to the lack of compelling releases, noting that the upcoming second quarter looks “extremely strong” compared with last year. Theater operators are counting on films such as Warner Bros.’ “A Minecraft Movie,” Disney’s live-action “Lilo & Stitch,” Universal’s live-action “How to Train Your Dragon” and Sony Pictures’ “Karate Kid: Legends.”

And with upcoming films like Universal’s “Jurassic World Rebirth,” Warner Bros.’ “Superman,” Disney’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and the animated “Zootopia 2,” cinema owners hope the rest of the year will pack a punch.

“We’re approaching normal again,” Handler said by phone. “The industry’s got clean air for the first time in years.”

Domestic box office totals for all of 2025 are expected to total $9.5 billion, an 8% increase compared with last year, though still down 17% compared with an average of the last three pre-pandemic years, according to a report from Gower Street Analytics. (That $9.5-billion figure was revised downward from an earlier expectation of $9.7 billion due to the “lack of breakout hits so far in 2025,” Gower Street said.)

For Rubio of D’Place Entertainment, it’s not that the films aren’t good. He said he fears moviegoers are pulling back on discretionary spending amid an uncertain economic landscape dotted with concerns about President Trump’s tariffs, inflation and a wobbly stock market.

“I do think it maybe spooked the average consumer just a little bit,” Rubio said. “They’re taking a breath, waiting to see it play out. Unless the movie is just overwhelmingly compelling to them, I think they’re willing to sit on the sideline.”

The quarter has been “a little bit disappointing” at Temecula’s Temeku Cinemas, as films like Marvel Studios’ “Captain America: Brave New World” and “Snow White” underperformed, said Heidi Robertson, chief executive of Tristone Cinemas, which owns the theater.

But family films like Universal’s “Dog Man” and StudioCanal’s “Paddington in Peru” (distributed by Sony in the U.S.) did well for the theater, and their quarterly results will end higher than last year’s numbers, she said.

To make up for gaps in the film schedule, the theater hosts special events, such as its screening of “The Lord of the Rings” trilogy, or the 2004 romance “The Notebook,” complete with photo backgrounds, trivia, prizes, and a themed gift and menu.

“They have been hugely successful for us and have definitely filled the voids financially and also socially with our customers,” Robertson said. “Every time we get to working on them, it feels to me like I’m planning a big birthday party.”

The Southern California wildfires hit already-struggling Gardena Cinema hard this quarter, resulting in the postponement of an event for a punk band and the premiere of a local filmmaker’s short movie. Owner and operator Judy Kim chose a few comedies and showed them for free in an attempt to bring people in, give them a diversion for a few hours and ideally sell some concessions.

The 800-seat, single-screen theater, which mostly plays older movies, has been run by her family for decades, and she said she hopes to keep it going in honor of her mother, who died in 2022.

“I’m trying to keep my mom’s legacy alive,” said Kim on the phone from her theater, where she and a volunteer were packing up movie memorabilia owned by Gardena Cinema that they auctioned off to pay the bills. “It’s like my family home. To allow the Gardena Cinema to disappear is like allowing a great portion of my history to disappear.”

However, some art house cinemas are doing strong business amid the doom and gloom.

At the Frida Cinema in Santa Ana, social media buzz pushed the independent theater to a record-breaking first quarter. Ticket sales for January and February were 37% higher than they were last year, and January was the theater’s biggest month ever.

“I pinch myself,” said Logan Crow, founding executive director of the Frida Cinema. “I’m well aware that we have an incredible amount to be grateful for.”

He said he thinks part of the surge in support may be due to enthusiasts’ desire to support the arts, especially as funding opportunities have taken a hit amid the economic uncertainty.

The 11-year-old theater shows a mix of classic cult restorations, in addition to new specialty releases. In the last few months, the Frida has shown A24’s “The Brutalist,” the Oscar-winning animated film “Flow” and Neon’s horror flick “The Monkey.” The theater also hosts themed months, such as A24 horror films, or the movies of David Lynch.

Independent theaters like the Frida are the “backbones of a lot of communities,” said Colleen Barstow, chair of the Independent Theater Owners Coalition subgroup of the Cinema United trade organization, which represents more than 600 independently operated companies accounting for almost 13,000 screens.

Local theaters were hit hard by the pandemic, followed by the writers and actors strikes of 2023, which thinned out the studios’ release schedules.

Many diversified — adding restaurants and other activities — as well as sprucing up their theaters to attract new patrons. Though the first quarter has been slower, several theater owners said they felt more optimistic about the rest of the year. They’re hoping the studios feel the same and will reciprocate at CinemaCon.

“What we’re hoping to hear is a commitment from the studios with a strong and steady slate of theatrical releases,” said Barstow, who co-owns Omaha-based Main Street Theaters/ACX Cinemas. “From what we see right now, we’re going to have that. 2025 will build into a very strong 2026.”