Oscars 2025: Will directors continue to look across the globe?

Any group that wants to recognize the work of the women behind two of the year’s best movies — the poignant poetry of Payal Kapadia’s “All We Imagine as Light” and the bruising body horror in Coralie Fargeat’s “The Substance” — is OK with me, even if that group is the Golden Globes, an organization that seems to exist solely for the profit of its corporate owners.

The Globes remain a brand, even if that brand has been tarnished and rehabilitated more times than my grandmother’s silverware that we’re putting out this Christmas. They’re still televised, returning this year to CBS, and last year about 10 million people watched the ceremony.

For their director prize, Globes voters nominated Fargeat and Kapadia, along with Sean Baker (“Anora”), Edward Berger (“Conclave”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”) and Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”). For fans of “All We Imagine as Light” and particularly “The Substance,” which has developed a fervent following since its September release, the Globes nominations sparked hope that Kapadia and Fargeat might be among the directors celebrated at the Oscars this year.

The academy’s directors branch might be the most adventurous group of Oscar voters. Its membership boasts a large number of international filmmakers, a demographic that has played a part in nominating directors behind non-English-language movies for several years running. Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”) and Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”) were feted at the last Oscars, following the likes of Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”), Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”) and Bong Joon Ho, who won for “Parasite,” which also became the first non-English-language film to win the Oscar for best picture.

That history should be good news for Kapadia — except all of those previous international filmmakers’ movies were Oscar-nominated either for best picture or international feature, or both. India did not submit “All We Imagine as Light” for international feature, a decision that was criticized at the time and ultimately backfired when the movie it did submit, “Laapataa Ladies,” failed to make the Oscars’ international feature shortlist. “All We Imagine as Light” could still earn a best picture nomination, but the movie and its director may well have to be content with the numerous critics group prizes that have come their way.

Fargeat has become a popular pick of late with awards season pundits. But they may be giving too much weight to the Globes nomination, as well as the prizes that she and “The Substance” have been picking up from regional critics groups. The European Film Awards didn’t nominate Fargeat for director, a notable miss from a body that has been a key indicator of success with the film academy. “The Substance” did pull in a leading number of nominations, winning two. Maybe she was a near-miss for a nod?

Three directors seem locked in at the moment for Oscar nominations — Baker, Audiard and Corbet.

Baker has been on a roll since “Anora” won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, both as writer and director of a movie that seamlessly shifts between comedy and tragedy. Baker has long been celebrated in indie circles for his movies that look at life on the margins of America but has never been nominated for an Oscar. He figures to pick up three this year for directing, writing and producing “Anora.”

Audiard could earn the same three Oscar nominations for “Emilia Pérez,” his musical soap opera about a Mexican cartel boss looking to transition to a woman. There’s a disconnect between the contentious online discourse surrounding the movie and the way that awards season voters have responded to the film. “Emilia Pérez” showed up on five Oscar shortlists — international feature, makeup and hairstyling, original score, original song (twice) and sound. Audiard and his movie are going to be rewarded generously when Oscar nominations are announced.

Corbet deserves a nomination for his provocative portrait of an immigrant wrestling with the American Dream in “The Brutalist,” and when you consider that he made this monumental, 3½-hour epic for less than $10 million, you might consider him the favorite to win the Oscar. Certainly, directors branch voters will give him bonus points for creativity and cutting corners. Corbet also worked for years on the movie without taking a salary. Who can resist a true passion project?

I suspect Berger is likely to join that trio for “Conclave.” Berger’s last movie, the 2022 adaptation of “All Quiet on the Western Front,” earned nine Oscar nominations, including for the screenplay, which Berger co-wrote, and won four. Berger wasn’t nominated for director, but there has been a real appreciation of his work on the twisty, crowd-pleasing “Conclave.” The movie looks great, moves quickly and was a modest hit.

In addition to Fargeat and Kapadia, there are several possibilities for the final slot. Denis Villeneuve delivered daring spectacle with “Dune: Part Two,” deepening the world he created in the first film. A “Wicked” wave could sweep in its director, Jon M. Chu, though in some corners, there’s been more enthusiasm for the mounting of the movie than for his aesthetic choices. With RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys,” it’s the opposite. Critics have hailed Ross’ decision to shoot subjectively from the point of view of his protagonists, a bold conceit that is challenging and, for some, distancing. In many ways, “Nickel Boys” feels like the most directed movie of the year, and Ross’ expressionistic approach will undoubtedly score points with his colleagues.

Finally, there’s Mohammad Rasoulof, who fled Iran to avoid a prison sentence shortly after finishing his latest movie, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” a film he shot in secret without government authorization. Rasoulof’s story is harrowing, and the movie works as an urgent political thriller, a blunt domestic drama and a document of state brutality. Coursing through all of these elements is a seething anger at authoritarianism. “Seed” is sure to show up among the nominees for international feature, so Rasoulof will be at the Oscars. It would be moving if he arrived as an individual nominee as well.