News Analysis: How the Saudi crown prince went from pariah to feted White House guest

BEIRUT  — Seven years ago, he was virtually persona non grata, any link to him considered kryptonite among U.S. political and business elite for his alleged role in the killing of a Washington Post columnist and Saudi critic.

But when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman came to Washington this week, he cemented a remarkable comeback, positioning himself as the linchpin of a new regional order in the Middle East, and his country as an essential partner in America’s AI-driven future.

During what amounted to a state visit, the crown prince — Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader — was given the literal red carpet treatment: A Marine band, flag-bearing horsemen and a squadron of F-35s in the skies above; a black-tie dinner attended by a raft of business leaders in the prince’s honor; a U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum at the Kennedy Center the next day.

Throughout, Bin Salman (or MBS, as many call him) proved himself a keen practitioner of the brand of transactional politics favored by President Trump.

President Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman walk down the Colonnade on the way to the Oval Office of the White House on Tuesday.

(Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images)

He fulfilled Trump’s ask, first floated back in May during the Riyadh edition of the U.S.-Saudi Forum, to raise the kingdom’s U.S. investment commitments from $600 million to almost $1 trillion.

And the prince managed to mollify Trump in his oft-repeated call for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, the normalization pacts with Israel brokered during the president’s first term, even while changing nothing of his long-stated position: That establishing ties with Israel be accompanied by steps toward Palestinian statehood — an outcome many in Israel’s political class reject.

“We believe having a good relation with all Middle Eastern countries is a good thing, and we want to be part of the Abraham Accords. But we want also to be sure that we secure a clear path [to a] two-state solution,” Bin Salman said.

“We want peace with the Israelis. We want peace with the Palestinians, we want them to coexist peacefully,” he added.

President Trump greets Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, at the White House on Tuesday.

(Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images)

At home in Saudi Arabia, the trip was touted as an unequivocal triumph for the prince. Saudi state media boasted the country’s emergence as a major non-NATO ally for the U.S., and the signing of a so-called Strategic Defense Agreement as demonstrating Riyadh’s centrality to American strategic thinking.

This touting came despite little clarity on what that agreement actually entails: Its text wasn’t published, and it was mentioned only in passing in a White House “fact sheet,” which emphasized Saudi Arabia would “buy American” with significant purchases of tanks, missiles and F-35s; the latter would be the first time the U.S.’ most advanced jet is sold to an Arab country.

Saudi Arabia will also be given access to top-line AI chips, enabling it to leverage plentiful land and energy resources to build data centers while “protecting U.S. technology from foreign influence,” according to the White House.

Talks over Riyadh’s civilian nuclear program, stalled for a decade over concerns from previous administrations, yielded a framework that in theory allows Saudi Arabia to build a nuclear plant. Uranium enrichment, which in theory would allow weaponization, isn’t part of the agreement, U.S. officials say.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Trump watch a flyover of F-15 and F-35 fighters before meeting at the White House.

(Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images)

On the regional politics front, Bin Salman got a pledge from Trump to help broker an end to the war in Sudan.

The visit capped Bin Salman’s stunning redemption arc from the nadir of his reputation seven years ago.

Back then, his image as a dauntless reformer — reversing bans on women driving, neutering the country’s notorious religious police — was already crumbling after he sought to silence not only foreign opponents, but anyone domestically who questioned Vision 2030, his far-reaching (and hugely expensive) plan for transforming Saudi Arabia.

Then came the 2018 strangulation and dismemberment in Turkey of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi insider-turned-mild-critic and Washington Post columnist.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is seen inside a vehicle while leaving the White House after a meeting in the Oval Office with President Trump.

(Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images)

Trump appeared more inclined to side with the prince, who denied any involvement in the killing, but the CIA said in a leaked report it had high confidence the prince ordered Khashoggi’s assassination.

Association with Bin Salman, once Washington’s Middle East darling, became toxic. International companies rushed to pull out of the kingdom. Politicians made it clear he was unwelcome. Then-candidate Joe Biden vowed to make the Saudi government “a pariah.”

In time, the prince stepped back from his more pugilistic policies, while geopolitics, energy concerns and a turbulent Middle East forced Biden to moderate his rejectionist stance.

In 2022, Biden visited the prince — giving him a tepid fist bump — to coax him into lowering energy prices.

That same year, Riyadh helped broker a prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine. Later, a China-brokered agreement saw the prince calm his country’s stormy diplomatic relations with Iran. Just last month, he reportedly worked behind the scenes to push through a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

His White House visit seemed to cement his comeback, but little of what was promised is a done deal.

For one, whether Saudi Arabia can pony up $1 trillion — a figure amounting to 80% of its annual GDP and more than twice its foreign exchange reserves — is an open question.

Crucially, the prince didn’t specify when the money would be invested.

Though the investment pledge is big, “how much and over what period of time is completely unclear,” said Tim Callen, an economist and former International Monetary Fund mission chief to Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is also pulling back on its government spending, with deflated oil prices forcing it to downsize many of its gigaprojects, Callen added.

“The pot of money available to push out all these projects and investments has shrunk, relative to 2022 and 2023,” he said.

“My take on it is that things are going to advance both on the investment and trade side [between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia] because there are mutual economic interests between the two countries,” he said. But in the short term, he added, $1 trillion “is too big a number for the economy of Saudi Arabia.”

As for F-35s, seeing them on Saudi runways is likely to take years. Congress has to approve F-35 sales, and some opposition could arise if they’re seen to jeopardize Israel’s qualitative military edge.

Israel, the only nation in the F-35 program allowed to use certain specialized technology, would expect Saudi Arabia to receive “planes of reduced caliber,” Trump said on Tuesday, with the prince on his side.

“I don’t think that makes you too happy,” he said to the prince.

“As far as I’m concerned,” Trump added, “I think [Israel and Saudi Arabia] are both at a level where they should get top of the line.”

But the bigger obstacle may be Saudi Arabia’s links to China, said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory and an aviation analyst.

Saudi security forces stand at attention beneath a portrait of Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, during a military parade as pilgrims arrive for the annual pilgrimage in the holy city of Mecca on May 31.

(AFP via Getty Images)

In recent years, Saudi Arabia has run military exercises with the Chinese navy and fielded Chinese-made weapons in its armed forces. Ensuring it doesn’t get a look at the aircraft’s capabilities presents “a different set of challenges,” Aboulafia said. Similar concerns scuttled the United Arab Emirates’ attempts to acquire the jet, he added.

Another issue is that a backlog in aircraft delivery means another recipient would need to give up their production slots in Saudi Arabia’s favor.

Also key to Bin Salman’s return to the U.S.’ full embrace was his treatment by Trump at the White House.

When a reporter asked the prince about the Khashoggi killing, it was Trump who put up a vociferous defense, and called Khashoggi “extremely controversial.”

“A lot of people didn’t like that gentleman that you’re talking about. Whether you like him or didn’t like him, things happen, but he knew nothing about it,” Trump said, pointing to the crown prince.

President Trump, right, and Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, shake hands during their meeting in the Oval Office.

(Nathan Howard / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Trump also took a swing at Biden’s fist bump, engaging in an awkward hand-grabbing game with Bin Salman.

“I grabbed that hand,” Trump said. “I don’t give a hell where that hand’s been.”