Iranians brace for U.S. strike while some dare to hope for regime change

TEHRAN — Iranians — battered by a government crackdown whose dead have yet to be fully tallied, still reeling from the 12-day conflict with Israel last year and fed up with endemic economic malaise born of sanctions and corruption — now face the prospect of another war with emotions ranging from anger to anticipation, but above all, exhaustion.

“Again and again, this routine of anxiety and worries,” said Ali, a barber in Tehran who like most of those interviewed did not give his last name for fear of harassment.

“All this feels like a pre-written scenario that has taken this long to unfold,” Ali said. “It’s not a pleasant feeling at all.”

A ticking clock hangs over Washington and Tehran’s latest diplomatic roundelay.

As the two sides continue Oman-brokered negotiations in Geneva, the U.S has amassed the largest military force in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion.

On Friday, President Trump said he was considering a limited military strike to force the Islamic Republic into a deal about its nuclear program and other issues.

“I guess I can say I am considering that,” he said to reporters at the White House.

Naval units from Iran and Russia carry out a simulation of a rescue from a hijacked vessel during the joint naval drills held Thursday at the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas along the Strait of Hormuz.

(Iranian army)

Such comments are contributing to the sense of unease felt throughout Iran. It’s shared by Hoda, 27, an art school graduate whose fellowship to Lisbon, Portugal, was derailed when the Portuguese Embassy closed during the 12-day war.

That conflict, when Israel launched a campaign targeting Iran’s top military echelons, as well as its nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure, showed Hoda “that daily life for ordinary people suffers, even if you only target military sites” and that preparations “often prove to be pointless.”

That’s why she hasn’t bothered stocking up on supplies, and maintains — an admittedly slim — hope that negotiations will bring about a deal.

“This war has no winners, and even the chance for improvement would be ruined by any conflict,” she said.

“Regardless of its outcome, it would be the worst possible scenario for ordinary people.”

Speaking on MS NOW’s “Morning Joe” on Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a deal was “achievable” and that “there is no military solution” for curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iran has repeatedly said it is developing nuclear power, not weapons.

Earlier in the week, Araghchi said there was “good progress” in the talks and that both sides agreed on a framework.

But it’s clear gaps remain.

The U.S. demands involve dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, though it’s unclear if that means full suspension of enrichment of uranium and neutralizing its arsenal of missiles. The U.S. also wants Iran to end its support for paramilitary groups, such as Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis.

Iran, however, insists that the talks strictly concern its nuclear program.

“We are prepared for diplomacy, and we are prepared for negotiation as much as we are prepared for war,” Araghchi said. He added that previous U.S. administrations and the current one have tried war, sanctions and other measures against Tehran “but none of them worked.”

“If you talk with the Iranian people with the language of respect, we respond with the same language,” he said. “But if they talk to us with the language of force, we will reciprocate in the same language.”

The U.S. forces arrayed off Iran’s shores — an armada comprising two carrier groups and dozens of warplanes — hint at a weeks-long campaign that could destroy much of Iran’s military capabilities.

But whether that would make Tehran more pliant, let alone spur regime change, is questionable.

Demonstrators hold the unofficial Iranian Lion and Sun flags and signs of protest at a rally in support of regime change in Iran at Los Angeles City Hall on Feb. 14.

(Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times)

“I don’t think a war initiated by Trump will deliver a decisive blow capable of topping the current ruling establishment,” said Nader Karimi, a pro-government journalist.

Another fear is that if the government survives the onslaught, it would double down on its brutal smothering of dissent — just as it did in the wake of the 12-day war, when it detained hundreds and executed dozens on espionage charges.

Some Iranians hope a limited strike would essentially repeat what happened in Venezuela, when U.S. troops nabbed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro while the rest of the government — now more pro-U.S. — stays in place.

Once strategic targets and the command structure are destroyed, said Feriadoun Majlesi, a former Iranian diplomat, “remaining government officials will demand an end to the war and peaceful conditions.”

Others see in a confrontation with the U.S. an opportunity.

“Yes, I’m waiting and feeling anxious, but I try to reassure myself the future can be bright. I don’t think the Islamic Republic will survive this time,” said Ahmad, a 27-year-old barista who joined the January protests.

“We’re ready to take to the streets again, once the time is right,” said Ahmad, who says he always keep canned food, frozen meals and aid supplies at home.

“I wish the war would last only a few weeks, and that only military targets and the Supreme Leader’s office would be hit. But who am I to decide which targets should be attacked?” he said. “Trump and his team know— or maybe even they do not.

Rahimi, a 74-year-old tailor, said he was looking forward to Trump toppling the government. The rest of his family agrees.

“Why do we hope for war? Simply because we protesters are empty-handed, while the suppressors are fully armed, savagely cracking down and killing us,” he said.

Estimates on the numbers of protesters killed at the hands of security forces in January vary widely.

The government’s official figure is roughly 3,000, but other groups say it could be as much as ten 10 times more.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency — which relies on a network of activists in Iran and has produced accurate death counts during previous rounds of unrest — put the toll at just over 7,000, but said almost 12,000 other cases remain under review.

Whatever the number, “we cannot forgive them,” Rahimi said.

“War will weaken the regime’s security and military forces. There is no other way.”

Special correspondent Mostaghim reported from Tehran and staff writer Bulos from Beirut.